I know no one really wants to talk about these issues, however not to would be insane.
Lets take a look at Asia first; we have North Korea and China both acting up at the same time. We have around 30,000 troops in South Korea, which we have a treaty to defend if South Korea is attacked. We also have a treaty with Taiwan if they are attacked. Now today as I write this, we (USA) is already spread pretty thin with out armed forces. So if China was to back North Korea’s attack on South Korea, and China then attacked Taiwan, we would be hard pressed to defend both, or to be brutally honest to defend just one. Granted we are not the only Nation that would back both Countries, however as normal the USA would be expected to have the most troops and Marines on the ground. Where would we get these men and women? Of course we would have to have a draft again, and this would not sit well with a lot of people in our country. However we would be left with no choice. Since we can never again allow naked aggression go unpunished, like Europe tried to do with Hitler. So lets look at the facts if this were to happen. First South Korea would be rolled over in about 30 days, while Taiwan would be able to push China back off the island for awhile, they too would be over run without our support. I know your thinking what about the 30,000 US Armed Forces member in South Korea now? Well to be honest when it’s 3,000,000 vs 30,000+S.Korea’s military, which last time I checked was around 560,000 odd troops. Now in South Korea’s favor is the fact that all able bodied men having to complete 24 months on active duty. So they would have a good militia to call up. However if North Korea could roll up South Korea in 30 days or less, it would be a mute point. Granted these people could perform guerrilla actions and tie up enough of North Korea’s troops for us and the coalition to be able to at the very least establish a strong hold on South Korean soil.
Taiwan would be a very tough nut to crack right away, and I do believe that we with our allies could respond fast enough to prevent Taiwan from being over run by sheer numbers.
While, I tend to believe that China has more to lose then it would gain by these actions, I am not sure that everyone would agree.
Just Food for thought, with more to follow.
Patrick Budowski
Maryland
